Rethinking the role of teams and training in geopolitical forecasting: the effect of uncontrolled method variance on statistical conclusions

HIGHLIGHTS

• What: The authors provide a summary of the broader issue of methodology in the supplemental material. The authors provide these values here as a heuristic for interpreting the model fits provided in Table 3. All models reported in the paper had trace plots that indicated their chains converged to the stationary distribution. To answer the first question, the authors examine whether the best-fit models allow latent forecasting ability to vary by condition.
• Who: RETHINKING FORECASTING from the Consider the following example forecast: " Greece have published the research: Statement of Relevance, in the Journal: (JOURNAL . . .
  

   

  

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