Using meta-predictions to identify experts in the crowd when past performance is unknown

HIGHLIGHTS

• who: Marcellin Martinie and collaborators from the Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia have published the paper: Using meta-predictions to identify experts in the crowd when past performance is unknown, in the Journal: PLOS ONE of 12/Nov/2019
• what: The authors propose a novel algorithm for aggregating probabilistic forecasts using forecasters' meta-predictions about what other forecasters will predict. The authors show that under the theoretical assumptions, the weight of an individual is zero if the individual's prior is equal to his or her posterior and . . .
  

   

  

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