HIGHLIGHTS
- What: The authors explore the role of probabilistic models including Bayesian statistics and regression analysis in forecasting economic trends and their implications for international relations. The authors investigate the impact of trade policies including tariffs non-tariff barriers and global trade agreements on economic dynamics and diplomatic interactions. Through case studies of economic sanctions the authors assess the effectiveness of sanctions as a diplomatic tool and propose policy recommendations for their optimal implementation. For instance, the analysis reveals that stringent sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures imposed by the EU can reduce agricultural imports from Africa by up . . .

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